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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still